Guoxin Securities (Hong Kong) released a research report saying that Great Wall Motor (02333) "buy" rating is maintained, revenue is expected to reach 210 billion yuan or more in 2024, and net profit is expected to return to the growth track. The company has a comprehensive brand and model layout in the Volkswagen model market, with many generations and major changes in models.SimplecarcrashphysicssimAfter the listing, it is expected that the sales of related brands will continue to rise in the follow-up. The significant lead in hard off-road vehicles and pick-up trucks also helps the company to fully enjoy the continued growth in market demand. The vast overseas market is expected to become a new track to drive the company's continued growth. The bank believes that the company is expected to rely on its own profound technology accumulation, complete and full of characteristics and advantages of the product matrix, in the fierce market competition to continue to increase sales, and gradually expand its share.
The main points of Guoxin Securities (Hong Kong) are as follows:
New energy and overseas sales continue to grow at a high speed
According to the data released by Great Wall Motor, in April 2024, the company's car sales recorded 9. 5%.Simplecarcrashphysicssim480,000 vehicles, an increase of 1% over the same period last year.Simplecarcrashphysicssim.8%. Of these, Harvard brand sales were 47000, down about 10% from the same period last year, tank brand sales were 20500, up 87.5% from the same period last year, and Great Wall pickup truck sales were 18000, down about 3% from the same period last year, up 87.7% from the same period last year. Harvard brand sales decline compared with the same period last year, mainly because the larger sales of H6 is about to be replaced, the pace of production and marketing is adjusted in stages. The monthly sales of the tank brand once again exceeded 20,000, indicating that it has a solid position in the hard-line off-road market segment.
From January to April of 2024, the company's car sales recorded 370000 units, an increase of 18.2% over the same period last year. Among them, Harvard brand sales increased by 15.1% year-on-year, tank brand increased 98.3% year-on-year increase of 143.4%, Euler brand fell 26.1% year-on-year, Great Wall pickup fell 8.8%.
In April 2024, the company sold 22400 new energy vehicles, an increase of about 51% over the same period last year.SimplecarcrashphysicssimFrom January to April, the company's new energy vehicle sales recorded 81600, an increase of 91.27% over the same period last year. In April 2024, the company's overseas sales recorded 36100 vehicles, another record for overseas monthly sales. From January to April, the company's overseas sales recorded 129000 vehicles, an increase of 74.7% over the same period last year.
2024Q1's revenue is higher than the same period last year, and its profit performance is better.
In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 42.86 billion yuan (the same below), an increase of 47.6% over the same period last year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders recorded 3.23 billion yuan, the highest profit in the first quarter. The net profit attributable to non-shareholders in the first quarter is 2.02 billion yuan.
The company's Q1 revenue achieved rapid growth in 2024, mainly due to: 1, the rapid growth of car sales (the company recorded 275000 car sales in the first quarter, an increase of 25.1% over the same period last year); 2, the product structure continued to rise, and the average selling price continued to rise. The company made a good profit in the first quarter, the bank believes that the main reasons are: 1, rapid revenue growth; 2, gross profit margin rebounded to a relatively good level (Q1 gross profit margin recorded 20.04%); 3, good control of expense growth (Q1 sales expenses increased by 17.3% year-on-year, management expenses decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, and R & D expenses increased by 27.7%).
The launch of Harvard's new cars may lead to a rapid rebound in brand sales.
In terms of the Harvard brand, the replacement Harvard H6 and the replacement Harvard H9 models have been officially unveiled at the Beijing Auto Show and are expected to be officially launched in the second quarter. Follow-up Harvard brand will also have a change to the fierce dragon and the fierce dragon max is about to appear on the market. The bank expects that the official launch of the above models will effectively lead to a rapid rebound in total sales of the Harvard brand. In addition, the company's WEY brand and Euler brand are expected to have a number of new or modified new energy models on the market this year.
The growth rate of sales may increase significantly around the middle of the year.
The bank expects that around the middle of 2024, the company's car sales growth is expected to increase significantly, the main reasons are as follows: 1, the Harvard brand in the second quarter of a number of blockbuster new cars have been launched, is expected to bring a significant increase in sales for the company. 2. It is expected that the company's overseas sales will continue to make efforts and lead to the rapid growth of total sales. 3. The domestic automobile market policy promotes greatly, which is beneficial to the steady increase of the sales volume of automobile enterprises.
